No escape from the dominant theories: The analysis of intellectual pillars of technology management in developing countries

This paper aims to identify the intellectual bases of the technology management (TM) literature generated in developing countries using citation and co-citation analyses and answer the question of whether the intellectual bases of the TM literature created by authors in developing countries diverge from those of the global TM literature. Based on a comprehensive bibliometric analysis of ten technology-innovation management (TIM) specialty journals through the period of 1998-2007, this study produces three important findings. First, the TM literature generated in developing countries is dominated by the knowledge and theories created in developed countries. Second, among these knowledge sources some authors from developing countries and focusing on the specialties of developing countries, such as Kim and Lall, come into prominence; however these authors are not even mentioned in the previous bibliometric studies covering overall TM research. Finally the researchers in developing countries tackle with the issues or topics specific to their own context through combining three major bulks of literature. These are (i) resource-based view (RBV)/core competencies and organizational learning related research; (ii) literature dealing with the evolutionary theorizing on economic change and growth and (iii) literature related to technological capabilities, technology transfer and industrialization in developing countries.     

Foresight analysis of tilapia supply chains (Sistema Producto) in four states in Mexico: Scenarios and strategies for 2018

In order to increase competitiveness among individual producers and to encourage their integration, the federal government of Mexico has pursued the establishment, at both the state and national levels, of supply chains, or Sistema Producto (SP). For fisheries and aquaculture, 33 SPs exist at the state level and 7 at the national level, 1 of them for tilapia. The objective of this study is to carry out a foresight analysis (FA) of 4 tilapia SPs in Mexico—for the States of Colima, Sonora, Tabasco and Yucatán—analyzing their 2018 vision for the development of the tilapia chain. FA provides an integral vision of both the internal and external environments, identifying the key factors for each SP and helping to develop the best strategies in order to compete successfully. Sonora, Tabasco and Yucatán identify marketing aspects as key elements for their 10-year future: adding value to the product by means of new processing technologies, developing their own brand, and identifying and differentiating their product based on sanitary issues. Colima focuses its industry future success on efficiency improvements. Finally, the main technological disruptions identified by the 4 states are the incremental use of information technology, product and process certification, new hatcheries with genetically-improved fry, and new processing methodologies developed and/or applied.     

Where have all the flowers gone? Forecasting green trends in the automobile industry with a choice-based conjoint adoption model

With rising gas prices, global warming, and green thinking, all-electric vehicles are currently considered the automobile technology of the future. However, besides their advantages electric drive trains also exhibit several disadvantages. Moreover, history shows several failed attempts to establish electric vehicles. Thus, a reliable forecasting model is needed that predicts if the current trend is sustainable. We develop and empirically test a choice-based conjoint adoption model that uses individual-level preferences as a basis for prediction. Predictions are mapped to the time of the next planned purchase in order to establish the adoption process. The model extends existing research in several ways. First, no prior information, e.g., historical market data or a functional form of the adoption process, has to be integrated. Second, the model allows dynamic modifications of product specifications or competition at different points in time. Third, a no-choice option can be integrated so that a technology switch is not forced by the model itself and switching costs can be considered. The empirical results reveal different critical factors for the adoption of all-electric vehicles, such as purchase price, range, timing of the market entry, or environmental evolution, which could lead to a solid base of consumers preferring this option.     

Technology evaluation in Taiwan's technology industries: Strategies, trajectories, and innovations

Technology evaluation, as an organizational process, is the essential ability to comprehend the values of technologies very soon after they emerge. Meanwhile, the technology evaluation process is inevitably influenced by the firm's industrial context, such as its technological trajectory. This study defines technology evaluation strategy in terms of the processes, methods, and participants involved, and uses this definition as a taxonomy to explore different types of technology evaluation strategies. A survey on the technological industries is conducted to explore types of technology evaluation strategies and their relationships with the advantages of different types of innovation under the effects of different technological trajectories. The survey identifies four types of technology evaluation strategies, namely, those of the flexible executive strategist, the emergent executive intuitionist, the deliberate quantitative strategist, and the deliberate consensual strategist, are identified. This study has found that certain types of technology evaluation strategies have better innovation performances than the others. The patterns of technological trajectories are also found to influence a firm's technology evaluation strategy and the advantages of certain types of innovations. The established explanations of the relationships among the technological trajectory, innovation type, and technology evaluation strategies may guide technology businesses to develop a better technology evaluation capability. The theoretical framework developed in this research enriches the strategic management literature with a new taxonomy for technology evaluation strategies.     

On the forecasting of the challenging world future scenarios

Logistic and power law methodologies for both retrospective and prospective analyses of extended time series describing evolutionary growth processes, in environments with finite resources, are confronted. While power laws may eventually apply only to the early stages of said growth process, the Allee logistic model seems applicable over the entire span of a long range process. On applying the Allee logistic model to both the world population and the world gross domestic product time series, from 1 to 2008 AD, a projection was obtained that along the next few decades the world should experience a new economic boom phase with the world GDP peaking around the year 2020 and proceeding from then on towards a saturation value of about 142 trillion international dollars, while the world population should reach 8.9 billion people by 2050. These results were then used to forecast the behavior of the supply and consumption of energy and food, two of the main commodities that drive the world system. Our findings suggest that unless the currently prevailing focus on economic growth is changed into that of sustainable prosperity, human society may run into a period of serious economical and social struggles with unpredictable political consequences.     

Superexponential long-term trends in information technology

Moore's Law has created a popular perception of exponential progress in information technology. But is the progress of IT really exponential? In this paper we examine long time series of data documenting progress in information technology gathered by [1]. We analyze six different historical trends of progress for several technologies grouped into the following three functional tasks: information storage, information transportation (bandwidth), and information transformation (speed of computation). Five of the six datasets extend back to the nineteenth century. We perform statistical analyses and show that in all six cases one can reject the exponential hypothesis at statistically significant levels. In contrast, one cannot reject the hypothesis of superexponential growth with decreasing doubling times. This raises questions about whether past trends in the improvement of information technology are sustainable.     

Corporate foresight: Its three roles in enhancing the innovation capacity of a firm

In the last three decades much knowledge has been produced on how best to conduct foresight exercises, but little is known on how foresight should be integrated with the innovation effort of a company. Drawing on empirical evidence from 19 case studies and 107 interviews, we identify three roles that corporate foresight should play to maximize the innovation capacity of a firm: (1) the strategist role, which explores new business fields; (2) the initiator role, which increases the number of innovation concepts and ideas; and (3) the opponent role, which challenges innovation projects to increase the quality of their output.     

The competition and equilibrium analysis of LCD TV and PDP TV

This study has investigated the dynamic competitive relationship between PDP TVs and LCD TVs by means of their quarterly shipments. The renowned Lotka-Volterra competition diffusion model has been adopted to conduct the empirical analysis with the Lyapunov function to carry out equilibrium and stability analysis, and estimate the domain of attraction which describes the trend and phenomenon of TV shipments. The results illustrate that there is good fitting performance while adopting this model. The competitive relationship can be viewed from the perspective that the LCD TV is the prey while the PDP TV is the predator. The possibility, nevertheless, for dropping the price of LCD TVs is an advantage of the attractiveness of the product which can be noted in higher growth rate than PDP TVs. With respect to the equilibrium stability analysis and estimated domain of attraction, 40- to 49-inch PDP TVs will not disappear from the market, but will generate a stable equilibrium with LCD TVs and sales volume presents simultaneous increase or decrease. In the supply and demand analysis, LCD TVs present a surplus of supply from 2008; therefore, how to conduct appropriate inventory management will be an emerging issue.     

A heuristic procedure to identify the most valuable chain of patent priority network

In this study, we provide support for the argument that patents are at their maximum value at those times when they are under litigation. We develop a heuristic procedure to determine the way in which such patents under litigation form a network of patent family members, and then go on to examine the priority patents involved. We subsequently attempt to develop a simple procedure to further identify both the ‘critical’ and ‘significant’ chains within our proposed patent priority network. We suggest that the ‘critical’ and ‘significant’ chains that are created within the above network provide companies with important information which will ultimately provide them with valuable support for the subsequent decision of their patent portfolio strategies.     

A framework for mapping industrial emergence

The industrial landscape is becoming increasingly complex and dynamic, with innovative technologies stimulating the emergence of new applications, business models and industries. This paper presents a framework for mapping science and technology-based industrial emergence, in order to better understand the nature and characteristics of such phenomena, as a basis for improved strategy development. A full lifecycle perspective is included, emphasizing early stage phases associated with scientific and technological developments, together with key transitions between phases related to the conversion of scientific knowledge to technological capability, application, industrial activity and economic value. Roadmapping concepts are used to map industrial emergence phenomena from various perspectives that cover value creation and capture activities together with demand and supply-side factors. The framework has been tested by developing more than 25 diverse ‘emergence maps’ of historical industrial evolution, building confidence that the framework might be applicable to current and future emergence. Common characteristics of industrial emergence have been identified, including key events and milestones, focusing on a chain of demonstrators that delineate the various phases and transitions.